Immunotherapy utilization patterns in patients with advanced cancer and autoimmune disease.

PURPOSE: Immunotherapy has been shown to improve cancer survival, but there are no consensus guidelines to inform use in patients with both cancer and autoimmune disease (AD). We sought to examine immunotherapy utilization patterns between cancer patients with and without AD. PATIENTS AND METHODS: This retrospective cohort study utilized data from a de-identified nationwide oncology database. Patients diagnosed with advanced melanoma, non-small cell lung cancer, and renal cell carcinoma were included. Outcomes of interest included first-line immunotherapy, overall immunotherapy, and number of immunotherapy cycles. We used logistic and Poisson regression models to examine associations between AD and immunotherapy utilization patterns. RESULTS: A total of 25,076 patients were included (796 with AD). Patients with AD were more likely to be female, White, receive care at academic centers, and have ECOG ≥ 3. Controlling for demographic and clinical variables, AD was associated with lower odds of receiving first-line (odds ratio [OR] = 0.68, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.56-0.82) and overall (OR = 0.80, 95% CI 0.67-0.94) immunotherapy. Among patients who received at least one cycle of immunotherapy, there was no difference in mean number of cycles received between patients with and without AD (11.3 and 10.5 cycles respectively). The incident rate of immunotherapy cycles received for patients with AD was 1.03 times that of patients without AD (95% CI 1.01-1.06). DISCUSSION: Patients with AD were less likely to receive immunotherapy as first-line and overall therapy for treatment of their advanced cancer. However, among those who did receive at least one cycle of immunotherapy, patients with AD received a similar number of cycles compared to patients without AD. This not only indicates that AD is not an absolute contraindication for immunotherapy in clinical practice but may also demonstrate overall treatment tolerability and net benefit in patients with AD.

Racial differences in treatment and survival among older patients with multiple myeloma.

BACKGROUND: Treatments for multiple myeloma (MM) have evolved over time and improved MM survival. While racial differences in MM treatment and prognosis between non-Hispanic African American (NHAA) and non-Hispanic White (NHW) patients are well-established, it is unclear whether they have persisted after the introduction of novel agents. METHODS: Using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results-Medicare linked database, our study investigated racial difference in the receipt of treatment within 1 year following diagnosis and assessed survival outcomes among Medicare beneficiaries (≥66 years) diagnosed with MM from 2007 to 2017. We applied multivariable Cox proportional hazards models to estimate the association between race and survival and presented hazard ratios (HRs). RESULTS: Of 2094 NHAA and 11,983 NHW older patients with MM, 59.5% and 64.8% received treatment during the first year, respectively. Discrepancy in the proportion of patients receiving treatment between the two groups increased from 2.9% in 2007 to 2009 to 6.9% in 2014-2017. After controlling for relevant factors, patients who received treatment within the first year had lower mortality than those who did not (HR = 0.90, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.86-0.94). NHAA patients had a lower probability to receive treatments during the first year than NHW patients (HR = 0.91, 95% CI: 0.85-0.97) but had lower mortality (HR = 0.94, 95% CI: 0.88-1.00). The lower mortality was only observed among patients who received no treatment (HR = 0.84, 95% CI: 0.77-0.93); NHAA and NHW patients who received treatment had similar survival (p = 0.63). CONCLUSIONS: The increasing racial disparity in treatment utilization over time is concerning. Efforts are needed to eliminate the barriers of receiving treatment.

Approaches to developing de novo cancer population models to examine questions about cancer and race in bladder, gastric, and endometrial cancer and multiple myeloma: the Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network incubator program.

BACKGROUND: We are developing 10 de novo population-level mathematical models in 4 malignancies (multiple myeloma and bladder, gastric, and uterine cancers). Each of these sites has documented disparities in outcome that are believed to be downstream effects of systemic racism. METHODS: Ten models are being independently developed as part of the Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network incubator program. These models simulate trends in cancer incidence, early diagnosis, treatment, and mortality for the general population and are stratified by racial subgroup. Model inputs are based on large population datasets, clinical trials, and observational studies. Some core parameters are shared, and other parameters are model specific. All models are microsimulation models that use self-reported race to stratify model inputs. They can simulate the distribution of relevant risk factors (eg, smoking, obesity) and insurance status (for multiple myeloma and uterine cancer) in US birth cohorts and population. DISCUSSION: The models aim to refine approaches in prevention, detection, and management of 4 cancers given uncertainties and constraints. They will help explore whether the observed racial disparities are explainable by inequities, assess the effects of existing and potential cancer prevention and control policies on health equity and disparities, and identify policies that balance efficiency and fairness in decreasing cancer mortality.

Estimating Breast Cancer Overdiagnosis After Screening Mammography Among Older Women in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Overdiagnosis is increasingly recognized as a harm of breast cancer screening, particularly for older women. OBJECTIVE: To estimate overdiagnosis associated with breast cancer screening among older women by age. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study comparing the cumulative incidence of breast cancer among older women who continued screening in the next interval with those who did not. Analyses used competing risk models, stratified by age. SETTING: Fee-for-service Medicare claims, linked to the SEER (Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results) program. PATIENTS: Women 70 years and older who had been recently screened. MEASUREMENTS: Breast cancer diagnoses and breast cancer death for up to 15 years of follow-up. RESULTS: This study included 54 635 women. Among women aged 70 to 74 years, the adjusted cumulative incidence of breast cancer was 6.1 cases (95% CI, 5.7 to 6.4) per 100 screened women versus 4.2 cases (CI, 3.5 to 5.0) per 100 unscreened women. An estimated 31% of breast cancer among screened women were potentially overdiagnosed. For women aged 75 to 84 years, cumulative incidence was 4.9 (CI, 4.6 to 5.2) per 100 screened women versus 2.6 (CI, 2.2 to 3.0) per 100 unscreened women, with 47% of cases potentially overdiagnosed. For women aged 85 and older, the cumulative incidence was 2.8 (CI, 2.3 to 3.4) among screened women versus 1.3 (CI, 0.9 to 1.9) among those not, with up to 54% overdiagnosis. We did not see statistically significant reductions in breast cancer-specific death associated with screening. LIMITATIONS: This study was designed to estimate overdiagnosis, limiting our ability to draw conclusions on all benefits and harms of screening. Unmeasured differences in risk for breast cancer and differential competing mortality between screened and unscreened women may confound results. Results were sensitive to model specifications and definition of a screening mammogram. CONCLUSION: Continued breast cancer screening was associated with greater incidence of breast cancer, suggesting overdiagnosis may be common among older women who are diagnosed with breast cancer after screening. Whether harms of overdiagnosis are balanced by benefits and for whom remains an important question. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: National Cancer Institute.

Mortality in the US Populations With Monoclonal Gammopathy of Undetermined Significance.

This cohort study analyzes a nationally representative sample with a screening test for monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS) to evaluate overall survival of populations with MGUS compared with those without MGUS among the general population in the US.

Relative Burden of Cancer and Noncancer Mortality Among Long-Term Survivors of Breast, Prostate, and Colorectal Cancer in the US.

Importance: Improvements in cancer outcomes have led to a need to better understand long-term oncologic and nononcologic outcomes and quantify cancer-specific vs noncancer-specific mortality risks among long-term survivors. Objective: To assess absolute and relative cancer-specific vs noncancer-specific mortality rates among long-term survivors of cancer, as well as associated risk factors. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study included 627 702 patients in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results cancer registry with breast, prostate, or colorectal cancer who received a diagnosis between January 1, 2003, and December 31, 2014, who received definitive treatment for localized disease and who were alive 5 years after their initial diagnosis (ie, long-term survivors of cancer). Statistical analysis was conducted from November 2022 to January 2023. Main Outcomes and Measures: Survival time ratios (TRs) were calculated using accelerated failure time models, and the primary outcome of interest examined was death from index cancer vs alternative (nonindex cancer) mortality across breast, prostate, colon, and rectal cancer cohorts. Secondary outcomes included subgroup mortality in cancer-specific risk groups, categorized based on prognostic factors, and proportion of deaths due to cancer-specific vs noncancer-specific causes. Independent variables included age, sex, race and ethnicity, income, residence, stage, grade, estrogen receptor status, progesterone receptor status, prostate-specific antigen level, and Gleason score. Follow-up ended in 2019. Results: The study included 627 702 patients (mean [SD] age, 61.1 [12.3] years; 434 848 women [69.3%]): 364 230 with breast cancer, 118 839 with prostate cancer, and 144 633 with colorectal cancer who survived 5 years or more from an initial diagnosis of early-stage cancer. Factors associated with shorter median cancer-specific survival included stage III disease for breast cancer (TR, 0.54; 95% CI, 0.53-0.55) and colorectal cancer (colon: TR, 0.60; 95% CI, 0.58-0.62; rectal: TR, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.69-0.74), as well as a Gleason score of 8 or higher for prostate cancer (TR, 0.61; 95% CI, 0.58-0.63). For all cancer cohorts, patients at low risk had at least a 3-fold higher noncancer-specific mortality compared with cancer-specific mortality at 10 years of diagnosis. Patients at high risk had a higher cumulative incidence of cancer-specific mortality than noncancer-specific mortality in all cancer cohorts except prostate. Conclusions and Relevance: This study is the first to date to examine competing oncologic and nononcologic risks focusing on long-term adult survivors of cancer. Knowledge of the relative risks facing long-term survivors may help provide pragmatic guidance to patients and clinicians regarding the importance of ongoing primary and oncologic-focused care.

Cancer cell-autonomous cGAS-STING response confers drug resistance.

The cGAS-STING pathway has long been recognized as playing a crucial role in immune surveillance and tumor suppression. Here, we show that when the pathway is activated in a cancer-cell-autonomous response manner, it confers drug resistance. Targeted or conventional chemotherapy drugs promoted cytosolic DNA accumulation in cancer cells, activating the cGAS-STING pathway and downstream TBK1-IRF3/NF-κB signaling. This cancer cell-intrinsic response enabled the cells to counteract drug stress, allowing treatment resistance to be acquired and maintained. Blockade of stimulator of interferon genes (STING) signaling delayed and overcame resistance in models in vitro and in vivo. This finding uncovers an alternative face of cGAS-STING signaling other than the well-reported modulation of microenvironmental immune cells. It also implies a caution for the combination of STING agonist with targeted or conventional chemotherapy drug treatment, a strategy prevailing in current clinical trials.

Cost-effectiveness of first-line immunotherapies for advanced non-small cell lung cancer.

BACKGROUND: Researchers have not simultaneously compared the cost-effectiveness of six immunotherapies with chemotherapy for advanced non-small cell lung cancer. This study evaluated the cost-effectiveness across different programmed death-ligand 1 (PD-L1) levels. METHODS: A Markov model with lifetime horizon was created for seven regimens: pembrolizumab plus chemotherapy (pembro-chemo), nivolumab plus ipilimumab (nivo-ipi), nivolumab, ipilimumab plus chemotherapy (nivo-ipi-chemo), atezolizumab plus chemotherapy (atezo-chemo), atezolizumab, bevacizumab plus chemotherapy (atezo-beva-chemo), single-agent pembrolizumab, and chemotherapy alone. Input parameters were derived from trial data, a network meta-analysis, and other literature. We conducted the analysis from the perspective of US health care sector. RESULTS: For all patients without considering PD-L1 expression, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of pembro-chemo versus chemotherapy was $183,299 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY). The preferred regimens based on ICERs differed by PD-L1 levels. For patients with PD-L1 ≥50%, pembrolizumab versus chemotherapy and pembro-chemo versus pembrolizumab resulted in ICERs of $96,189 and $198,913 per QALY, respectively. The other strategies were dominated. For patients with PD-L1 of 1%-49%, the ICER of pembro-chemo comparing to chemotherapy was $218,159 per QALY. The other regimens were dominated by pembro-chemo. For patients with PD-L1 <1%, nivo-ipi versus chemotherapy and nivo-ipi-chemo versus nivo-ipi resulted in ICERs of $161,277 and $881,975 per QALY, and the other regimens were dominated strategies. At the willingness-to-pay threshold of $150,000 per QALY, pembrolizumab had 87% and pembro-chemo had 1% probabilities being cost-effective in patients with PD-L1 ≥50% and 1%-49%, respectively. Nivo-ipi had a 34% probability being cost-effective in patients with PD-L1 <1%. CONCLUSIONS: The PD-L1 level should be incorporated into treatment decision-making. Our findings suggest that first-line pembrolizumab, pembro-chemo, and nivo-ipi are the preferred strategies for patients with PD-L1 ≥50%, 1%-49%, and <1%, respectively.

End-of-life care trajectories among older adults with lung cancer.

INTRODUCTION: Medicare decedents with cancer often receive intensive care during the last month of life; however, little information exists on longer end-of-life care trajectories. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Using SEER-Medicare data, we selected older adults diagnosed with lung cancer between 2008 and 2013 who survived at least six months and died between 2008 and 2014. Each month we assessed claims to assign care categories ordered by intensity as follows: full-month inpatient/skilled nursing facility > cancer-directed therapy (CDT) only > concurrent CDT and symptom management and supportive care services (SMSCS) > SMSCS only > full-month hospice. We assigned each decedent to one of six trajectories: stable hospice, stable SMSCS, stable CDT with or without concurrent SMSCS, decreasing intensity, increasing intensity, and mixed. Multinomial logistic regression estimated associations between socio-demographics, calendar year, and area hospice use rates with end-of-life trajectory. RESULTS: The sample (N = 24,342) was predominantly aged ≥75 years (59.4%) and non-Hispanic White (80.5%); 19.1% lived in healthcare referral regions where ≤50% of cancer decedents received hospice care. Overall, 6.5% were continuously hospice enrolled, 25.6% received SMSCS only, and 29.4% experienced decreasing intensity; 3.9% received CDT or concurrent care, while 8.7% experienced an increase in intensity. Higher healthcare referral region hospice rates were associated with decreasing end-of-life intensity; Black, non-Hispanic decedents had a higher risk of increasing intensity and mixed patterns. DISCUSSION: Among older decedents with lung cancer, 62% had six-month end-of-life trajectories indicating low or decreasing intensity, but few received persistent CDT. Demographic characteristics, including race/ethnicity, and contextual measures, including area hospice use patterns, were associated with end-of-life trajectory.

Treatment Sequencing Patterns and Associated Direct Medical Costs of Metastatic Breast Cancer Care in the United States, 2011 to 2021.

Importance: Advances in treatment of metastatic breast cancer (MBC) led to changes in clinical practice and treatment costs in the US over the past decade. There is limited information on current MBC treatment sequences and associated costs by MBC subtype in the US. Objectives: To identify treatment patterns by MBC subtype and associated anticancer and supportive drug costs from health care sector and Medicare perspectives. Design, Setting, and Participants: This economic evaluation analyzed data of patients with MBC obtained from the nationwide Flatiron Health database, an electronic health record-derived, deidentified database with data from community and academic practices across the US from 2011 to 2021. Participants included women aged at least 18 years diagnosed with MBC, who had at least 6 months of follow-up data, known hormone receptor (HR) and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (ERBB2) receptor status, and at least 1 documented line of therapy. Patients with documented receipt of clinical study drugs were excluded. Data were analyzed from June 2021 to May 2022. Main Outcomes and Measures: Outcomes of interest were frequency of different drug regimens received as a line of therapy by subtype for the first 5 lines and mean medical costs of documented anticancer treatment and supportive care drugs per patient by MBC subtype and years since metastatic diagnosis, indexed to 2021 US dollars. Results: Among 15 215 patients (10 171 patients [66.85%] with HR-positive and ERBB2-negative MBC; 2785 patients [18.30%] with HR-positive and ERBB2-positive MBC; 802 patients [5.27%] with HR-negative and ERBB2-positive MBC; 1457 patients [9.58%] with triple-negative breast cancer [TNBC]) who met eligibility criteria, 1777 (11.68%) were African American, 363 (2.39%) were Asian, and 9800 (64.41%) were White; the median (range) age was 64 (21-84) years. The mean total per-patient treatment and supportive care drug cost using publicly available Medicare prices was $334 812 for patients with HR-positive and ERBB2-positive MBC, $284 609 for patients with HR-negative and ERBB2-positive MBC, $104 774 for patients with HR-positive and ERBB2-negative MBC, and $54 355 for patients with TNBC. From 2011 to 2019 (most recent complete year 1 data are for patients diagnosed in 2019), annual costs in year 1 increased from $12 986 to $80 563 for ERBB2-negative and HR-positive MBC, $99 997 to $156 712 for ERBB2-positive and HR-positive MBC, and $31 397 to $53 775 for TNBC. Conclusions and Relevance: This economic evaluation found that drug costs related to MBC treatment increased between 2011 and 2021 and differed by tumor subtype. These findings suggest the growing financial burden of MBC treatment in the US and highlights the importance of performing more accurate cost-effectiveness analysis of novel adjuvant therapies that aim to reduce metastatic recurrence rates for early-stage breast cancer.

Perioperative magnetic resonance imaging in breast cancer care: Distinct adoption trajectories among physician patient-sharing networks.

BACKGROUND: Despite no proven benefit in clinical outcomes, perioperative magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) was rapidly adopted into breast cancer care in the 2000's, offering a prime opportunity for assessing factors influencing overutilization of unproven technology. OBJECTIVES: To examine variation among physician patient-sharing networks in their trajectory of adopting perioperative MRI for breast cancer surgery and compare the characteristics of patients, providers, and mastectomy use in physician networks that had different adoption trajectories. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results-Medicare database in 2004-2009, we identified 147 physician patient-sharing networks (caring for 26,886 patients with stage I-III breast cancer). After adjusting for patient clinical risk factors, we calculated risk-adjusted rate of perioperative MRI use for each physician network in 2004-2005, 2006-2007, and 2008-2009, respectively. Based on the risk-adjusted rate, we identified three distinct trajectories of adopting perioperative MRI among physician networks: 1) low adoption (risk-adjusted rate of perioperative MRI increased from 2.8% in 2004-2005 to 14.8% in 2008-2009), 2) medium adoption (8.8% to 45.1%), and 3) high adoption (33.0% to 71.7%). Physician networks in the higher adoption trajectory tended to have a larger proportion of cancer specialists, more patients with high income, and fewer patients who were Black. After adjusting for patients' clinical risk factors, the proportion of patients undergoing mastectomy decreased from 41.1% in 2004-2005 to 38.5% in 2008-2009 among those in physician networks with low MRI adoption, but increased from 27.0% to 31.4% among those in physician networks with high MRI adoption (p = 0.03 for the interaction term between trajectory group and time). CONCLUSIONS: Physician patient-sharing networks varied in their trajectory of adopting perioperative MRI. These distinct trajectories were associated with the composition of patients and providers in the networks, and had important implications for patterns of mastectomy use.

Primary care physician continuity, survival, and end-of-life care intensity.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the associations of primary care physician (PCP) care continuity with cancer-specific survival and end-of-life care intensity. DATA SOURCES: Surveillance, epidemiology, and end results linked to Medicare claims data from 2001 to 2015. STUDY DESIGN: Cox proportional hazards models with mixed effects and hierarchical generalized logistic models were used to examine the associations of PCP care continuity with cancer-specific survival and end-of-life care intensity, respectively. PCP care continuity, defined as having visited the predominant PCP (who saw the patient most frequently before diagnosis) within 6 months of diagnosis. DATA EXTRACTION METHODS: We identified Medicare patients diagnosed at age 66.5-94 years with stage-III or IV poor-prognosis cancer during 2001-2012 and followed them up until 2015. Patients who died within 6 months after diagnosis were excluded. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Primary study cohort consisted of 85,467 patients (median survival 22 months), 71.7% of whom had PCP care continuity. Patients with PCP care continuity tended to be older, married, nonblack, non-Hispanic, and to have fewer comorbid conditions (p < 0.001 for all). Patients with PCP care continuity had lower cancer-specific mortality (adjusted hazard ratio: 0.93; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.91 to 0.95; p = 0.001) than did those without PCP care continuity. Findings of the 2001-2003 cohorts (nearly all of whom died by 2015) show no associations of overall end-of-life care intensity measures with PCP care continuity (adjusted marginal effects: 0.005; 95% CI: -0.016 to 0.026; p = 0.264). CONCLUSIONS: Among Medicare beneficiaries with advanced poor-prognosis cancer, PCP continuity was associated with modestly improved survival without raising overall aggressive end-of-life care.

Cost-Effectiveness of Nivolumab Plus Ipilimumab With and Without Chemotherapy for Advanced Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer.

BACKGROUND: First-line treatment with nivolumab plus ipilimumab (N+I) or nivolumab plus ipilimumab with two cycles of chemotherapy (N+I+chemotherapy) improve overall survival and progression-free survival for patients with metastatic non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), yet researchers have not concomitantly compared the cost-effectiveness of N+I and N+I+chemotherapy with chemotherapy alone. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Using outcomes data from the CheckMate 227 and CheckMate 9LA phase 3 randomized trials, we developed a Markov model with lifetime horizon to compare the costs and effectiveness of N+I and N+I+chemotherapy versus chemotherapy from the U.S. health care sector perspective. Subgroup analysis by programmed death-ligand 1 (PD-L1) expression levels (≥1% and <1%) and probabilistic analysis were performed. RESULTS: The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of N+I versus chemotherapy was $239,072 per QALY, and $838,198 per QALY for N+I+chemotherapy versus N+I. The ICER of N+I versus chemotherapy was $246,584 per QALY for patients with PD-L1 ≥ 1% and $185,620 per QALY for those with PD-L1 < 1%. In probabilistic analysis, N+I had a 2.6% probability of being cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $150,000 per QALY. The probability was 0.4% for patients with PD-L1 ≥ 1% and 10.6% for patients with PD-L1 < 1%. CONCLUSION: First-line N+I or N+I+chemotherapy for metastatic NSCLC was not cost-effective regardless of PD-L1 expression levels from the U.S. health care sector perspective.

Targeting AKR1B1 inhibits glutathione de novo synthesis to overcome acquired resistance to EGFR-targeted therapy in lung cancer.

Acquired resistance represents a bottleneck to molecularly targeted therapies such as epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) tyrosine kinase inhibitor (TKI) treatment in lung cancer. A deeper understanding of resistance mechanisms can provide insights into this phenomenon and help to develop additional therapeutic strategies to overcome or delay resistance. Here, we identified a pharmacologically targetable metabolic mechanism that drives resistance to EGFR TKIs in lung cancer cell lines and patient-derived xenograft mice. We demonstrated that aldo-keto reductase family 1 member B1 (AKR1B1) interacts with and activates signal transducer and activator of transcription 3 (STAT3) to up-regulate the cystine transporter solute carrier family 7 member 11 (SLC7A11). This leads to enhanced cystine uptake and flux to glutathione de novo synthesis, reactive oxygen species (ROS) scavenging, protection from cell death, and EGFR TKI drug resistance in lung cancer cell lines and xenograft mouse models. Suppression of AKR1B1 with selective inhibitors, including the clinically approved antidiabetic drug epalrestat, restored the sensitivity of resistant cell lines to EGFR TKIs and delayed resistance in lung cancer patient-derived xenograft mice. Our findings suggest a metabolic mechanism for resistance to a molecularly targeted therapy and provide a potential therapeutic target for overcoming resistance to EGFR TKIs, including the third-generation inhibitor osimertinib.

Considering lead-time bias in evaluating the effectiveness of lung cancer screening with real-world data.

Low-dose computed tomography screening can be used to diagnose lung cancer at a younger age compared to no screening. Real-world studies observing mortality after lung cancer diagnosis are subject to lead-time bias. This study developed a method using a nationwide cancer registry and stage shift from trial for the adjustment of lead-time bias. 78,897 Taiwanese nationwide lung cancer patients aged 55-82 were matched with 788,820 referents randomly selected from the general population at a ratio of 1:10 by age, sex, calendar year, and comorbidities, to estimate the pathology- and stage-specific life expectancy (LE). Loss-of-LE is the difference between the LE of cancer patients and that of referents. By multiplying LE and loss-of-LE by the pathology and stage shift in the National Lung Screening Trial (NLST), we compared the effectiveness of cancer screening measured by LE gained and loss-of-LE saved. The mean LEs of stage IA and IV adenocarcinoma were 14.5 and 1.9 years, respectively, indicating a LE gain of 12.6 years. However, the mean loss-of-LEs of stage IA and IV adenocarcinoma were 3.7 and 15.1 years, respectively, with a saving of only 11.4 years, implying an adjustment of different distributions of age, sex, and calendar year of diagnosis from stage shift and a reduction in lead-time bias. Applying such estimations on the results of 10,000 participants with the same pathology and stage shift in the NLST, the benefit of screening using LE gained would be 410.3 (95% prediction interval: 328.4 to 503.3) years. It became 297.1 (95% prediction interval: 187.8 to 396.4) years when using loss-of-LE saved, indicating the former approach would overestimate the effectiveness by 38%. Our approach of multiplying loss-of-LE by pathology and stage shift to estimate loss-of-LE saved could adjust for different distributions of age, sex, and calendar year at early diagnosis and reduce lead-time bias.

Cost-Effectiveness of Adjuvant Treatment for Ductal Carcinoma In Situ.

PURPOSE: Ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) accounts for 20% of breast cancer cases in the United States and is potentially overtreated, leading to high expenditures and low-value care. We conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis evaluating all adjuvant treatment strategies for DCIS. METHODS: A Markov model was created with six competing treatment strategies: observation, tamoxifen (TAM) alone, aromatase inhibitor (AI) alone, radiation treatment (RT) alone, RT + TAM, and RT + AI. Baseline recurrence rates were modeled using the NSABP B17 and RTOG 9804 trials for standard-risk and good-risk DCIS, respectively. Relative risk reductions and adverse event rates for each treatment strategy were derived from meta-analyses of large randomized trials. We used a willingness-to-pay threshold of $100,000 in US dollars/quality-adjusted life-year and a lifetime horizon for two cohorts of women, age 40 and 60 years. Comprehensive sensitivity analyses evaluated the robustness of base-case results. RESULTS: RT alone was cost-effective for patients with standard-risk DCIS, and observation was cost-effective for patients with good-risk DCIS, across both age groups. Strategies including TAM or AI resulted in fewer quality-adjusted life-years than observation, because of the prolonged decrement in quality of life outweighing the modest benefit in ipsilateral risk reduction. In sensitivity analysis, RT alone was cost-effective for age 40, good-risk patients when ipsilateral risk reduction matched that of the RTOG 9804 trial, there was minimal increased risk of contralateral breast secondary malignancy, or there was strong patient willingness to pursue RT. CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that cost-effective and clinically optimal treatment strategies are RT alone for standard-risk DCIS and observation for good-risk DCIS, with personalization on the basis of patient age and preference for RT. Hormonal therapy is likely suboptimal for most patients with DCIS.

End-of-life patterns of symptom management and cancer-directed care among Medicare beneficiaries with lung cancer: a claims-based analysis.

BACKGROUND: Rather than early hospice enrollment, most Medicare beneficiaries receive "usual care" in the last months of life, outside of the hospice setting. While care intensity during the last weeks of life has been studied extensively, patterns of symptom management services (SMS) and/or cancer-directed therapies (CDT) received over a 6-month end-of-life period have not. METHODS: This retrospective study used the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)-Medicare database to identify decedents diagnosed with lung cancer at age ≥ 66 years between January 2007 and December 2013 who survived ≥ 6 months from diagnosis. Medicare claims identified receipt of SMS and/or CDT. We created monthly indicators for care content (SMS-only, CDT-only, or both; otherwise full-month hospice or inpatient/skilled nursing). Multinomial logistic regression estimated associations between sociodemographics and comorbidity, with care content in the final month. RESULTS: Between 6 and 1 months before death, full-month hospice and inpatient/skilled nursing increased; CDT decreased from 31.9 to 18.5%; SMS increased from 86.6 to 97.7%. Relative to full-month hospice, the percentage of patients receiving SMS-only was higher for males, unmarried, younger age, and higher comorbidity; the percentage receiving CDT was also higher for males, unmarried, and younger age, but decreased with increasing comorbidity and over calendar time. CONCLUSION: Among lung cancer decedents observed in the outpatient, nonhospice setting, SMS receipt increased and was nearly universal as death approached. CDT diminished dramatically over the end-of-life period. Associations between sociodemographic characteristics and care setting suggest differences in care preferences or access barriers. Claims represent an important resource for characterizing end-of-life care patterns.

Physician trajectories of abandoning long-course breast radiotherapy and their cost impact.

OBJECTIVE: To examine variation in trajectories of abandoning conventionally fractionated whole-breast irradiation (CF-WBI) for adjuvant breast radiotherapy among physician peer groups and the associated cost implications. DATA SOURCES: Medicare claims data were obtained from the Chronic Conditions Data Warehouse for fee-for-service beneficiaries with breast cancer in 2011-2014. STUDY DESIGN: We used social network methods to identify peer groups of physicians that shared patients. For each physician peer group in each time period (T1 = 2011-2012 and T2 = 2013-2014), we calculated a risk-adjusted rate of CF-WBI use among eligible women, after adjusting for patient clinical characteristics. We applied a latent class growth analysis to these risk-adjusted rates to identify distinct trajectories of CF-WBI use among physician peer groups. We further estimated potential savings to the Medicare program by accelerating abandonment of CF-WBI in T2 using a simulation model. DATA COLLECTION/EXTRACTION METHODS: Use of conventionally fractionated whole-breast irradiation was determined from Medicare claims among women ≥ 66 years of age who underwent adjuvant radiotherapy after breast conserving surgery. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Among 215 physician peer groups caring for 16 988 patients, there were four distinct trajectories of abandoning CF-WBI: (a) persistent high use (mean risk-adjusted utilization rate: T1 = 94.3%, T2 = 90.6%); (b) decreased high use (T1 = 81.3%, T2 = 65.3%); (c) decreased medium use (T1 = 60.1%, T2 = 44.0%); and (d) decreased low use (T1 = 31.6%, T2 = 23.6%). Peer groups with a smaller proportion of patients treated at free-standing radiation facilities and a larger proportion of physicians that were surgeons tended to follow trajectories with lower use of CF-WBI. If all physician peer groups had practice patterns in T2 similar to those in the "decreased low use" trajectory, the Medicare program could save $83.3 million (95% confidence interval: $58.5 million-$112.2 million). CONCLUSIONS: Physician peer groups had distinct trajectories of abandoning CF-WBI. Physician composition and setting of radiotherapy were associated with the different trajectories. Distinct practice patterns across the trajectories had important cost implications.

Cost-Effectiveness of Neoadjuvant-Adjuvant Treatment Strategies for Women With ERBB2 (HER2)-Positive Breast Cancer.

Importance: The neoadjuvant treatment options for ERBB2-positive (also known as HER2-positive) breast cancer are associated with different rates of pathologic complete response (pCR). The KATHERINE trial showed that adjuvant trastuzumab emtansine (T-DM1) can reduce recurrence in patients with residual disease compared with patients treated with trastuzumab; however, T-DM1 and other ERBB2-targeted agents are costly, and understanding the costs and health consequences of various combinations of neoadjuvant followed by adjuvant treatments in the United States is needed. Objective: To examine the costs and disease outcomes associated with selection of various neoadjuvant followed by adjuvant treatment strategies for patients with ERBB2-positive breast cancer. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this economic evaluation, a decision-analytic model was developed to evaluate various neoadjuvant followed by adjuvant treatment strategies for women with ERBB2-positive breast cancer from a health care payer perspective in the United States. The model was informed by the KATHERINE trial, other clinical trials with different regimens from the KATHERINE trial, the Flatiron Health Database, McKesson Corporation data, and other evidence in the published literature. Starting trial median age for KATHERINE patients was 49 years (range, 24-79 years in T-DM1 arm and 23-80 years in trastuzumab arm). The model simulated patients receiving 5 different neoadjuvant followed by adjuvant treatment strategies. Data analyses were performed from March 2019 to August 2020. Exposure: There were 4 neoadjuvant regimens: (1) HP: trastuzumab (H) plus pertuzumab (P), (2) THP: paclitaxel (T) plus H plus P, (3) DDAC-THP: dose-dense anthracycline/cyclophosphamide (DDAC) plus THP, (4) TCHP: docetaxel (T) plus carboplatin (C) plus HP. All patients with pCR, regardless of neoadjuvant regimen, received adjuvant H. Patients with residual disease received different adjuvant therapies depending on the neoadjuvant regimen according to the 5 following strategies: (1) neoadjuvant DDAC-THP followed by adjuvant H, (2) neoadjuvant DDAC-THP followed by adjuvant T-DM1, (3) neoadjuvant THP followed by adjuvant DDAC plus T-DM1, (4) neoadjuvant HP followed by adjuvant DDAC/THP plus T-DM1, or (5) neoadjuvant TCHP followed by adjuvant T-DM1. Main Outcomes and Measures: Lifetime costs in 2020 US dollars and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were estimated for each treatment strategy, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were estimated. A strategy was classified as dominated if it was associated with fewer QALYs at higher costs than the alternative. Results: In the base-case analysis, costs ranged from $415 833 (strategy 3) to $518 859 (strategy 4), and QALYs ranged from 9.67 (strategy 1) to 10.73 (strategy 3). Strategy 3 was associated with the highest health benefits (10.73 QALYs) and lowest costs ($415 833) and dominated all other strategies. Probabilistic analysis confirmed that this strategy had the highest probability of cost-effectiveness (>70% at willingness-to-pay thresholds of $0-200,000/QALY) and was associated with the highest net benefit. Conclusions and Relevance: These results suggest that neoadjuvant THP followed by adjuvant H for patients with pCR or followed by adjuvant DDAC plus T-DM1 for patients with residual disease was associated with the highest health benefits and lowest costs for women with ERBB2-positive breast cancer compared with other treatment strategies considered.